Causes of Armed Ethnic Conf licts and their Implications on Security Management in Malakal Town, Upper Nile State, South Sudan

This paper analyzes the causes of armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town, Upper Nile State of South Sudan. The study identified several factors driving ethnic violence in the region, including ethnic conflicts, politically driven disputes, land ownership issues, revenge attacks, cattle rustling, and dowry-related tensions. It further revealed that political influence, marginalization, poverty, cultural practices, poor governance, and the arms trade play a significant role in perpetuating these conflicts. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and security agencies, emphasizing the importance of addressing underlying causes to promote long-term peace and stability in the area.

Introduction

In most post-conflict states, there was an acute shortage of an encompassing idea of the state that could bind all competing identities to the nation-state. This was accentuated during the decolonization period in Africa and the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, where the challenge of establishing viable states, strong enough to bind various identities to the state, was faced (Fukuyama, 2012). In Africa, the decolonization and the end of the Cold War left behind bifurcated states, with different identities within the state competing for control of state power (Mamdani, 1996). For Rwanda and Burundi, decolonization left a void that was filled by competing identities between ethnic Hutu and Tutsis. Tutsis, having been the privileged ethnic group under colonial rule, were viewed as enemies by Hutus in both countries (Mamdani, 2001). A critical analysis of the ongoing situation in South Sudan reveals that the crises were similar to the challenges faced by a majority of post-independent states in Africa, characterized by the bringing together of politicized and militarized identities. Subsequently, this impacted negatively on the traditional animosities between the Dinka, Murle, and Nuer communities.

According to the World Bank (2020), the implementation of the 2018 peace deal resulted in a lower intensity of conflict and enabled the return of some displaced populations, with an estimated 500,000 displaced people recently returning.

Litrature Review

Causes of Ethnic Armed Conflicts in South Sudan

Several instances of armed conflict in South Sudan, such as the 2009 Lou-Nuer attacks, illustrate the intensity and departure from traditional violence like cattle raiding. According to UN reports, widespread crime and insecurity in South Sudan stem from factors such as ethnic violence, political unrest, and unemployment. Scholarly reports on these factors’ influence on security management remain limited. The external indicators' influences to fund the civil war and access to arms further complicates the situation, as does political power struggles and ethnic divisions, all of which have unknown effects on security in Malakal Town. Additionally, land conflicts, unemployment, and the restructuring of communities for political gain play critical roles in fueling violence, though their impact on security management in Malakal is yet to be studied.

Effects of Armed Conflicts on Ethnic Communities

The Horn of Africa, including South Sudan, has been characterized by continuous conflicts driven by power struggles. These conflicts have led to security challenges in South Sudan, affecting both the local population and the broader Horn of Africa region. Effects such as refugee crises, arms smuggling, and terrorism have arisen from South Sudan’s instability. The war has devastated the country’s economy, displaced people, and damaged its social fabric, with significant effects on oil production and foreign investment. However, the extent of these issues in Malakal Town is largely undocumented.

Security Management Strategies

Post-independence South Sudan faces challenges in maintaining law and order, as well as building a powerful state capable of achieving national goals. Sustainable development is hindered by internal violence, despite the peace agreement with Sudan. Youth unemployment policies are inadequate, and community participation in conflict prevention is critical but under-researched. The study seeks to examine the security management strategies in Malakal Town, focusing on community involvement and youth policies.

Method

The research methodology employed in the study, covering research design, study area, population and sampling, data collection methods, data analysis, and ethical considerations. The study adopted an explanatory research design, ensuring coherence and logical integration of its components to address the research problem effectively, following a cyclical approach to develop a deeper understanding. The target population consisted of Malakal Town’s 181,498 residents, with stratified random sampling used to select respondents from the Dinka, Shilluk, and Nuer ethnic groups, while purposive sampling gathered insights from youth, women, and traditional leaders. A sample of 105 respondents was selected, with key informant interviews and questionnaires used for data collection, targeting security personnel, elders, ethnic leaders, and government administrators. Both qualitative and quantitative data were analyzed, using descriptive statistics and patterns in the responses. The unit of analysis was household heads, and ethical considerations were prioritized, ensuring voluntary participation, informed consent, and respect for privacy.

Results and Discussion

The findings are derived from a combination of qualitative and quantitative data, including interviews, surveys, and secondary data analysis.

Response Rate

Out the target 105 respondents, 78 respondents participated in the study’s research exercise. This translated to 74.3% of the targeted respondents for the survey. This response rate is by far above the recommended threshold for survey research (Mugenda & Mugenda, 2013) Table I presents the response rates.

Table I. Response Rates

Variables	Frequency	Percentage
Returned	78	74.3
Unreturned	27	25.7

Demographic Characteristics

The study examined some demographic characteristics of the respondents. Key demographic characteristics explored include gender, age, marital status, educational level, and occupation.

Gender Distribution

It is important to consider gender distribution during a research as the perspective implies that the research took into consideration the opinions and consideration of both biological and social genders, which are then reflected in the content of the research. By establishing gender distribution a research is also able to highlight the diversity of the research, a fact that aids the study to enhance its scientific quality as well as the social relevance of the study. Represented below is a chart highlighting the gender distribution of the respondents.

Fig. 1 highlights the fact that a majority of the respondents were male respondents (51) who accounted for 65.4% of the respondents. The figure further reveals that 27 of the total respondents were female respondents who accounted for 34.6% of the total respondents. The data presented in percentages was derived at by calculating the mean percentage of the respondent’s gender distribution. The study used the following formula in the derivation of the mean percentages: (percentage mean: Number of participants ÷ 78 (Total number of respondents) = Mean number of participants × 100 = Percentage Mean).

Fig. 1. Gender distribution of respondents.

Age of Respondents

Table II highlights the age distribution of the respondents. The majority were individuals aged between 29 and 39 years (19 respondents), accounting for 24.4% of the total. The least represented group were individuals aged between 18 and 28 years (4 respondents). Additionally, 3 respondents (3.8%) did not disclose their ages. The percentages were calculated using the following formula: Number of participants ÷ 78 (Total respondents) × 100 = Percentage Mean. The study recorded the age distribution of respondents, with the majority being between 29 and 39 years old (24.4%) and the least represented group between 18 and 28 years. Three respondents (3.8%) did not disclose their ages, and percentages were derived using a formula based on the total number of participants.

Table II. Age Distribution of Respondents (n = 78)

Variable	Item	Frequency	Percentage
Age	18–28 years	4	5.1
	29–39 years	19	24.4
	40–49 years	18	23.1
	50–59 years	16	20.5
	Above 59 years	18	23.1
	Undisclosed	3	3.8

Respondent’s Marital Status

Table III highlights the fact that a majority of the respondents (40) were married individuals who accounted for 51.3% of the total respondents. The table further reveals that a minority of the research’s respondents were separated individuals (2) who accounted for 2.6% of the respondents. The table also highlights the fact that 3 (3.8%) of the total respondents did not disclose their marital status to the research. The data presented in percentages was derived at by calculating the mean percentage of the respondent’s gender distribution. The study used the following formula in the derivation of the mean percentages: (percentage mean: Number of participants ÷ 78 (Total number of respondents) = Mean number of participants × 100 = Percentage Mean).

Table III. Marital Status Distribution of Respondents (n = 78)

Variable	Status	Frequency	Percentage
Marital status	Married	40	51.3
	Single	21	26.9
	Divorced	3	3.8
	Separated	2	2.6
	Widowed/widower	9	11.5
	Undisclosed	3	3.8

Education Level

The importance of determining the education level of respondents to assess the credibility of the data collected. It states that respondents with higher education levels are likely to provide more reliable data, enhancing research accuracy. The data reveals that the majority of respondents (23 or 29.5%) had a secondary school education, while the minority (1 or 1.28%) were PhD holders (Fig. 2). Additionally, 5 respondents (6.4%) did not disclose their education level. The percentages were calculated using the formula: (Number of participants ÷ 78) × 100.

Fig. 2. Respondents’ education level distribution.

Respondent’s Occupation

Fig. 3 highlights the various occupations of the respondents who took part in the research exercise.

Fig. 3. Respondents’ occupation distribution.

Fig. 3 shows that the majority of respondents were government employees (32 individuals), representing 41.0% of the total respondents. In contrast, a minority (4 individuals) selected “other” in the occupation section, accounting for 5.1% of the total. The percentage data was calculated using the formula: (percentage mean: Number of participants ÷ 78 (Total number of respondents) = Mean number of participants × 100 = Percentage Mean).

Ethnicity of Respondents

Malakal Town is considered to be an ethnically diverse region that is home to several individuals from varying ethnic groups. In this section of the chapter, the study looks to identify the various ethnicities of the respondents, which are highlighted in Fig. 4.

Fig. 4. Ethnicity distribution of respondents.

Malakal Town is recognized as an ethnically diverse area, housing individuals from various ethnic backgrounds. According to Fig. 4, the largest group of respondents belonged to the Dinka tribe, comprising 42.3% (33 individuals) of the total respondents. In contrast, the least represented group was the Komo tribe, with only 2 representatives, accounting for 2.6% of the respondents. The percentages presented were calculated using the formula: (Percentage Mean = Number of Participants ÷ 78 (Total Respondents) × 100).

Experience of Armed Conflict in Malakal Town

To establish the data presented in this section, the research calculated the mean percentage of the respondents using the formula: (Percentage Mean: Number of Respondents ÷ Total Number of Respondents (78) × 100). The study first asked respondents if they had personally experienced any incidents of armed conflict in Malakal Town. Table IV shows the respondents’ answers to this question.

Table IV. Answers of the Respondents

Variables	YES		NO
	Total participants	Percentage	Total participants	Percentage
Have you ever experienced incidents of armed conflicts?	76	97.4%	2	2.6%

Table IV reveals that a majority of the respondents (76) who made up 97.4% of the respondents had actually witnessed incidents of armed conflict within Malakal Town. This data goes to show that the area of study is indeed a region affected by cases of insecurity arising from armed conflicts amongst the various ethnic groups in the region.

Causes of Armed Conflicts in Malakal Town

The data presented in this section, expressed as percentages, was calculated by determining the mean percentage of the respondents’ gender distribution. The study utilized the following formula for deriving the mean percentages: (Percentage Mean: Number of participants ÷ 78 (Total number of respondents) = Mean number of participants × 100 = Percentage Mean). The research asked each respondent about the causes of the armed conflicts they had witnessed. Fig. 5 illustrates the responses regarding the causes of the armed conflicts.

Fig. 5. Causes of armed conflicts in Malakal Town.

Fig. 5 shows that the majority of armed conflicts reported by respondents were attributed to ethnic conflicts (38.2%). Local politics was another significant cause, with 30.3% of respondents indicating that the conflicts were politically induced. Other causes included land disputes (19.7%), revenge attacks (6.6%), cattle rustling (3.9%), and dowry negotiation issues (1.3%).The survey presented nine potential major causes of armed conflicts: land ownership, land use, boundary disputes, influence of political leaders, marginalization and poverty, cultural factors (such as dowry, cattle complex, and heroism), poor governance, arms sales, and inequality in resource distribution. Respondents rated each cause on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means strongly disagree and 5 means strongly agree. The tables below summarize the feedback on each major cause of armed conflicts. The history of conflicts in South Sudan emphasizes land ownership as a recurring issue.

To assess whether land ownership is a major cause of armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town, respondents were asked about its role in initiating these conflicts. According to Table V, a majority of respondents (87.2%) strongly agree that land ownership is a leading cause of armed conflict, while 6.4% agree. The research concludes that land ownership is indeed a major cause of armed conflicts, with 93.6% of respondents acknowledging its significance. Additionally, the study identified land use as a potential major cause of armed conflicts.

Table V. Land Ownership

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Land ownership	2	2.6%	2	2.6%	1	1.3%	5	6.4%	68	87.2%

To explore this further, the respondents’ opinions sought on whether land usage contributes to the initiation of armed ethnic conflicts in the region. Table VI presents the respondents’ responses. A majority of the respondents (60.3%) agree that land use is one of the leading causes of armed conflict in Malakal Town, with 26.9% strongly agreeing. The research concluded that land usage is indeed a significant cause of armed conflicts, supported by 87.2% of respondents who acknowledged its importance. However, 10.3% disagreed, and 2.6% remained undecided. Historically, South Sudan has experienced boundary disputes that have led to armed conflicts.

Table VI. Did the Ways in which Land was Being Used by Different Ethnic Groups Play a Role in Initiating the Armed Ethnic Conflicts in the Region?

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Land use	2	2.6%	6	7.7%	2	2.6%	47	60.3%	21	26.9%

To investigate whether boundary disputes are a cause of the armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town, the research prompted respondents for their opinions on this issue. Table VII presents the respondents’ responses regarding boundary disputes as a major cause of armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town. As revealed by Table VII, a majority of the respondents (89.7%) strongly agree that boundary disputes are amongst the leading causes of armed conflict in Malakal Town, while 6.4% of the respondents also agree to these sentiments. The research therefore concluded that boundary disputes are amongst the leading causes of the armed conflicts in Malakal Town as revealed by 96.1% of the respondents, who agreed that the issue boundary disputes is indeed amongst the leading causes of armed conflicts in the region.

Table VII. Boundary Disputes

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Boundary disputes	2	2.6%	0	0%	1	1.3%	5	6.4%	70	89.7%

The study identified political influence as a major cause of armed conflicts in Malakal Town. To investigate this, respondents were asked if they believed political leaders played a role in initiating these conflicts. According to Table VIII, 87.2% of respondents strongly agreed that political influence was a significant cause, while an additional 7.7% agreed. The research concluded that political leaders’ influence was indeed one of the leading causes of armed conflicts, with 94.9% of respondents affirming this perspective.

Table VIII. Influence of Political Leaders

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Influence of political leaders	1	1.3%	1	1.3%	2	2.6%	6	7.7%	68	87.2%

The study aimed to assess whether marginalization and poverty contributed to the frequent armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town, South Sudan. Respondents were asked to share their views on this issue, and the findings are presented in Table IX. A majority of respondents (75.6%) strongly agreed, and an additional 19.2% agreed, that marginalization and poverty were significant causes of the armed conflicts in Malakal Town. Overall, 94.8% of the respondents affirmed that these factors played a major role in driving the conflicts.

Table IX. Marginalization and Poverty

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Marginalization and poverty	1	1.3%	1	1.3%	2	2.6%	15	19.2%	59	75.6%

The study identified cultural factors as a major cause of armed conflicts in Malakal Town. The research sought to confirm whether respondents believed cultural factors played a role in initiating these conflicts. According to Table X, 47.4% of respondents strongly agreed and 33.3% agreed that cultural factors were significant contributors to the conflict. In total, 80.7% of respondents affirmed the role of cultural factors in causing the armed conflicts, despite 11.5% disagreeing with this view. The study concluded that cultural factors play a significant role in the conflicts in Malakal Town.

Table X. Cultural Factors

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Cultural factors i.e., dowry, cattle complex, and heroism	6.4%	4	5.1%	6	7.7%	26	33.3%	37	47.4%

The study identified poor governance as a major potential cause of armed conflicts in Malakal Town. To assess this, respondents were asked whether they believed poor governance contributed to the initiation of these conflicts. As shown in Table XI, 73.1% of respondents strongly agreed that poor governance was a leading cause of the armed conflicts, and an additional 19.2% agreed. Consequently, the research concluded that poor governance indeed played a significant role in causing the armed conflicts in Malakal Town, with 92.3% of respondents agreeing that it was a contributing factor.

Table XI. Poor Governance

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Poor governance i.e., break of trade and modern institutions	2	2.6%	2	2.6%	2	2.6%	15	19.2%	57	73.1%

South Sudan’s long history of armed conflict has been largely facilitated by the sale of arms. The research aimed to determine whether the prevalence of armed conflicts and the sale of arms contributed to the frequent ethnic conflicts in Malakal. Respondents were asked if these factors played a role in the conflicts. As shown in Table XII, 84.6% of respondents strongly agreed, and 11.5% agreed that the prevalence of armed conflicts and arms sales significantly contributed to the violence. Overall, 96.1% of respondents confirmed that these factors increased the occurrence of armed conflicts in Malakal Town.

Table XII. Armed Conflicts and Arms Sales

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Armed conflicts and arms sales	3	3.8%	0	0%	0	0%	9	11.5%	66	84.6%

Unequal distribution of resources is a significant issue affecting many African countries, and the government of South Sudan has faced criticism regarding this problem. This study aimed to determine whether unequal resource distribution contributed to the frequent armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town. Respondents were asked if they believed this inequality was a cause of the conflicts. As shown in Table XIII, 80.8% of respondents strongly agreed that resource inequality is among the leading causes of armed conflicts in Malakal Town, while an additional 16.7% agreed. The study concluded that resource distribution inequality plays a significant role in the armed conflicts in Malakal Town, supported by 97.5% of respondents who identified it as a leading cause.

Table XIII. Inequality in Resource Distribution

Cause of armed conflicts	Strongly disagree		Disagree		Undecided		Agree		Strongly agree
	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%	NOR	%
Inequality in resource distribution	2	2.6%	0	0%	0	0%	13	16.7%	63	80.8%

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions

The study identifies several key factors underpinning the escalation of ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town, Upper Nile State of South Sudan:

State Inability: The inability of the state to penetrate society and assert control has exacerbated inter-communal violence. Weak state institutions and the failure to provide security have created a vacuum that insurgent groups exploit, persuading or coercing communities into conflict.

Poor Policy Response: The escalation of ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town is driven by poor governance policies aimed at regime consolidation rather than genuine nation and state-building. Policies such as political accommodation and centralization of power deny large sections of society access to political power and economic resources, thus fueling violence.

Lack of Inclusive Institutions: The prevention and de-escalation of inter-communal violence are tied to establishing inclusive institutions. These would accommodate diverse ethnic interests at the local level and devolve both economic and human resources to marginalized groups, mitigating feelings of exclusion.

Proliferation of Small Arms: Small arms are both a cause and consequence of violence. The easy availability of weapons exacerbates the conflict, making security management more challenging.

Historical Grievances: Ethnic conflicts in Malakal are often fueled by historical grievances, some dating back to the long civil wars, and unresolved injustices that continue to foster resentment and violence.

Recommendations

To address the underlying causes of armed ethnic conflicts in Malakal Town, the following recommendations are made:

Dismantling Conflict Traps: Addressing the socio-political and economic drivers of ethnic conflict is crucial. This includes reducing inequalities in resource distribution, addressing historical grievances, and restoring the legitimacy of traditional authorities.

Inclusive Institutions: Establishing inclusive political and economic institutions is essential for reducing feelings of marginalization and disenfranchisement. This includes devolving resources to local levels and ensuring broader access to political power.

Disarmament and Demobilization: Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs should be strengthened to reduce the proliferation of small arms and reintegrate former combatants into society. However, these programs must be adapted to the specific context of South Sudan, where polarization and poverty are pervasive.

Addressing Historical Grievances: It is necessary to address the historical injustices that fuel ethnic conflicts. Establishing transitional justice mechanisms to investigate and resolve these grievances could contribute to long-term peace.